Ag production value to surpass $70B

If the forecast in ABARES’ (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) Agricultural Commodities: September Quarter report proves to be accurate, then it will be the first time Australia’s agriculture sector has been valued at over $70 billion, the organisation said.

The new figure of $73 billion in gross value of production (GVP) is a hefty increase from the previous prediction of $65 billion in the June 2021 report.

This brings the sector one huge step closer to the NFF (National Farmers Federation)-led goal of $100 billion in production value by 2030.

“The forecast for next year is due to a combination of factors, all tumbling neatly into place,” said ABARES Executive Director, Dr Jared Greenville.

“The value of crop production is set to rise by seven per cent to $39.5 billion because of another near-record winter crop harvest, combined with strong global prices for grain, sugar and cotton.

“While there are risks related to mice, labour availability and continued uncertainties due to COVID-19, we are expecting national production to remain robust.”

The value of livestock production is also tipped to rise to $33.5 billion, an increase of eight per cent.

“We’ve had a solid cropping year across the wheat-sheep belt, so we’re looking at another robust harvest," Dr Greenville said.

“The international market is also tipped in our favour, as poor harvests in North America and Europe are pushing up the price of grain.”

Strong domestic production and a favourable global market are set to see exports also hit a record of close to $55 billion in 2021-22.

“The biggest contribution to growth in exports will be crops, which are set to rise by 17 per cent to $30 billion,” Dr Greenville added.

“A good year means optimism at the saleyards, and many of our farmers are enjoying their second good year in a row. This has translated to record prices for young cattle as farmers look to restock.”

However, these buoyant conditions are not expected to stay around forever, Dr Greenville said.

“Australian farmers operate in one of the world’s most variable climates so we cannot expect the good seasons to keep coming. The same can be said for high world prices.

“That said, the last two years have placed our farmers in a good position to take on any challenges ahead.”