BOM warns of warmer, drier months ahead
El Niño alert issued, signaling a 70 per cent chance of hotter and drier weather patterns this year, especially in the eastern statesThe Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has moved from El Niño WATCH to El Niño ALERT, meaning there is now a high chance of an El Niño weather event developing this year.
This puts an end to La Niña weather patterns which has brought about plenty of rain and moisture across the country for the past few years.
According to BOM, the impending arrival of El Niño could mean:
- Reduced rainfall for eastern Australia.
- Warmer daytime temperatures for the southern two-third of Australia.
- Increased risk of extreme heat.
- Increased bushfire danger in south-eastern Australia.
- Increased frost risk linked to clear skies at night.
- Decreased alpine snow depths.
- A later start to the northern wet season.
- Reduced tropical cyclone numbers.
In short, not so great news for farmers and firefighters.
"While our climate models show it's very likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño levels during winter, we have seen some movement in the atmosphere towards El Niño conditions," said Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist, Catherine Ganter.
"While our El Niño ALERT criteria have been met, these changes will need to strengthen and sustain themselves over a longer period for us to consider an El Niño event," she said.
The Bureau's criteria for the definition of El Niño ALERT have been developed as part of a staged system to alert Australians on the increased likelihood of El Niño.
El Niño describes changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect global weather and it occurs on average every three to five years.
During El Niño, there is a higher chance of drier weather in eastern Australia and it's more likely to be warmer than usual for the southern two-thirds of Australia.
"The Bureau's long-range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts," Ganter said.
"The long-range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Niño ALERT does not change this forecast.
"The Bureau currently forecasts Australia's rainfall and temperature up to 3 months ahead. We use a climate version of our weather model to make these long-range forecasts and this model uses information about ocean and land temperatures, wind patterns and more.
BOM’s model already takes into account the likely conditions in the Pacific Ocean, but also conditions elsewhere across the globe, such as the tropical Indian Ocean and how they are also likely to influence Australian weather and climate, Ganter added.
Ganter said even if an El Niño develops, its impact can vary depending on where you are, as well as from event to event.
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