Farm production value set to fall

After a series of bumper years, the value of Australian agriculture production is set to fall to $78 billion in 2023-24, according to the ABARES’ (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) latest forecast.

This is $16 billion lower than estimated production values for 2022–23, but would still be the third highest result on record.

“The gross value of production is forecast to fall in 2023–24 as drier conditions impact record-high crop production levels seen in 2022–23,” said ABARES Acting Executive Director, David Galeano.

“In total, Australian crop production values are expected to fall by $12 billion in 2023–24. Livestock production values are also forecast to decline reflecting recent price falls.

“Falling production values and incomes are also linked to declining global prices that are reflective of higher global supply.”

The ABARES added high rainfall in the past three years has contributed to record-breaking crop production.

“As we enter the El Niño period, we expect to see the national crop production fall from these record highs,” Galeano said.

“Crop prospects for winter crops over spring have been mixed, and planting of summer crops in 2023–24 is expected to fall, reflecting below-average rainfall and low soil moisture levels during the early planting window.

“Drier conditions and lower prices mean average broadacre farm cash incomes are forecast to fall strongly in 2023–24.

“However, the past three years of high incomes have allowed broadacre farms to build up liquid assets, which should help cushion the forecast downturn.”