Latest harvest exceeds expectations

According to ABARES’s latest forecast, Australia’s agricultural production is set to reach heights never before seen in the country’s history, surpassing all previous forecasts and expectations set by the organisation.

Released at the ABARES Outlook 2022 conference, running from March 1 to 4, the Australian Crop Report has predicted all round record numbers for winter and summer crop production; as well as winter crop production value.

“Winter crop harvests have smashed our expectations back in December,” said Executive Director of ABARES, Dr Jared Greenville.

“Now that the winter crop harvest is complete, the national winter crop production is estimated to reach a record 61.9 million tonnes, supported by record production for wheat, barley and canola.”

That is a 3.5 million tonne revision from December’s forecast.

“Western Australian production reached record heights, while New South Wales had near-record levels of production,” Dr Greenville added.

“It hasn’t all been smooth sailing – the effects of a wet spring and summer have meant that a lot of the grain in New South Wales has been subject to weather damage and a degradation in quality.

“It’s also been an extraordinary season for summer crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales. We’ve had well above average rainfall during late spring and summer to support production prospects.

“While there were flooding conditions in November that damaged early plantings of summer crops, overall the conditions have been very favourable.”

Meanwhile, summer crop production is forecast to be the fourth highest on record.

“At the moment, summer crops in Australia is forecast to rise by 64 per cent in 2021–22 to 5.3 million tonnes, one of the highest on record,” Dr Greenville said.

“We also estimate that the area sown for summer crops to have risen by 48 per cent to 1.5 million hectares, which is 35 per cent above the 10-year average to 2020–21.”

As a result of the record harvest volume, the total value of agriculture products is set to reach $81 billion in 2021-22, beating last year’s record by over $12 billion.

“This is an unprecedented result, and it can be put down to a combination of record high crop production, and the highest prices (in real terms) for Australian agricultural produce in 32 years,” Dr Greenville said.

“Australia has harvested what will be the most valuable winter crop ever, even after accounting for flood and rain damage in parts of New South Wales.

“The total value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry production will also reach a record of almost $87 billion in 2021-22.”

However, these record figures won’t stay around for long and the industry will need to prepare for an adjustment in the near future, Dr Greenville said.

“We are expecting the gross value of agricultural production to fall by around six per cent to $76 billion next financial year, which is still the second highest on record.,” he said.

“With production at record highs and high prices, increases in income are likely to far outweigh the additional pressure of higher input costs for fuel, fertiliser, chemicals and labour.

“But we will need to keep an eye on farm costs as commodity prices come back to normal.”

Dr Greenville said ideal weather conditions ahead should continue to support agricultural production in the coming year.

“According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (March to May), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology in February, rainfall during autumn is more likely to be above average in most cropping regions,” he said.

“While we know that La Nina can’t last, we can still expect good autumn rains to finish off the summer crops and support winter crop plantings in 2022–23.”