Near record 51.5M tonne harvest predicted
That’s a 76 per cent jump YOY, according to ABARESThe latest ABARES Australian Crop Report for December 2020 has predicted a record-breaking season ahead, with over 51 million tonnes of winter crops expected to be harvested in the summer months.
The 51.6 million tonnes anticipated for this year sits second only to the 56.7 million recorded in 2016-17, and represents a huge 76 per cent jump from last year’s mediocre harvest.
New South Wales, in particular, is on track to achieve its highest harvest on record with a forecast production of more than 17.6 million tonnes. Victoria is set to achieve its second highest on record while harvest is expected to be well above average in South Australia.
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ABARES Executive Director, Steve Hatfield-Dodds, said production in key cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was boosted by favourable conditions during the critical grain development phase.
“Overall, for Australia, the December forecast is a 7.4 per cent upward revision from the figure in the September 2020 Australian Crop Report,” he said.
Dr Hatfield-Dodds said production forecasts for Western Australia and Queensland have been adjusted to reflect the less than favourable conditions in late winter and early spring.
“We still expect these two states to record significantly increased production on last year’s levels, but have revised down those forecasts slightly taking into account less than expected rainfall.“
Across the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by 106 per cent from last year to 31.2 million tonnes, the second highest on record.
Barley production is forecast to increase by 33 per cent to 12 million tonnes, the second highest on record, and canola production is forecast to rise by 59 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes, the fifth highest on record.
Chickpeas production is forecast to increase by 162 per cent to 737,000 tonnes and oats production is forecast to increase by 89 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month climate outlook, issued on November 19, 2020, summer rainfall is likely to be above average in most summer cropping regions, spelling further good news for producers in those areas.
In its crop report, ABARES also provided forecasts for summer crop planting which is also expected to experience significant increases from previous years.
Area planted to summer crops in 2020–21 is forecast to rise by 211 per cent from the drought affected levels of 2019–20 to around 1.1 million hectares. However, that still sits at six per cent below the 10-year average to 2019–20, due to area planted to cotton forecast to be below its long-term average.
That being said, the area planted to grain sorghum and cotton is forecast to rise significantly from last year’s figures.
Summer crop production is forecast to rise by a whopping 322 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes, reflecting the expected increase in planted area and an assumed return to average yields from historically low levels in 2019–20.
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