Plan for bumper crop: ANZ

ANZ’s ag research arm is urging farmers and contractors to plan ahead for one of the biggest harvest this season, after releasing its latest grains report.

The report looks at the challenges facing growers and companies right through the grain supply chain, with harvest now within sight.

According to ANZ Agri Research Director, Michael Whitehead, the cautiously optimistic outlook for the national wheat crop this year is at 26 million tonnes, despite a recent dry period in a number of grain regions.

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“After last year’s drought-hit low of 15.2 million tonnes, this would be an increase of 71 percent. In addition, on some current estimates, wheat exports are currently forecast to jump by around 90 percent to 17.5 million tonnes,” he said.

The report said the forecast increases in production and exports would be among the largest year-on-year rises in over 50 years.

More importantly, these forecasts would spell great news for growers, many of whom are coming off the back of two tough drought years.

ANZ stated the forecasts may still be impacted in coming months by possible economic effects of COVID-19 on some export markets, as well as the dynamics of other major global grain exporters.

With a bumper crop predicted, ANZ is urging all stakeholders along the grain supply chain to ensure they are well-prepared for the coming harvest in terms of transport, storage and export processes.

One thing that growers should look into is ensuring their infrastructure and materials including silos, bunkers, coverings and grain bags are all in adequate supply, ANZ said.

“Growers, contractors and traders will also be looking ensure adequate availability of harvesting and transport machinery, including headers, trucks, and train capacity,” Whitehead added.

“While the COVID-19 situation in Australia later this year is difficult to predict, it would be wise to factor in any implications from possible continuing restrictions on cross-border movements between states.”

The ANZ report also looked at the global grain export landscape, including the challenges from factors such as China’s barley tariffs, Black Sea Region competition and US agri policy which has been impacted by the looming election.

Despite these factors, the report highlighted several positive outlooks for the Australian grain market including Australia’s continuing role in supplying for the bread and noodle markets across Asia, as well as a boost in grain exports as outlined in the free trade agreement with Indonesia.

Read the full report here.