Tractor sales slide in 2025 as market experiences “long COVID”

Tractor sales in the 12 months to June 2025 dipped by 12 per cent, with 9696 units sold, according to the latest industry analysis from global agricultural insights firm, Kynetec.

Sales of tractors under 60hp fell eight per cent, while larger models recorded a steeper 14 per cent decline. All states experienced downturns over the past year, with the Northern Territory, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales recording double-digit drops.

Speaking at the Tractor and Machinery Association of Australia (TMA) Conference in Melbourne on July 24, Kynetec’s Melinda Haley said the current slowdown is a direct consequence of the sector’s COVID-era boom.

“We’ve borrowed sales from the future and completely disrupted our normal replacement cycles,” Haley told attendees.

“Farmers who might have bought second-hand equipment opted for new, and many were buying two tractors when they would normally purchase just one, all to take full advantage of the 100 per cent asset write-off.”

Despite the current dip, Haley noted average sales over the past six years remain higher than pre-COVID levels. “Even with the slowdown, our rolling average is still above where we would have been had we followed the natural growth trajectory from 2019.

“It’s not all doom and gloom, but we are in what I call the industry’s version of ‘long COVID’. We just need to ride it out and return to our regular replacement cycle,” she said.

Haley noted regional variation in sales performance. While most of the country saw significant drops, Western Australia held relatively steady, recording only a two per cent decline. Haley attributed this to better seasonal conditions and renewed investment in converting land back to cropping.

“Some livestock farmers are investing in larger machinery and specialist equipment, like rock crushers, to convert previously unusable land into viable cropping areas,” she said.

“Operating these machines requires 400hp-plus tractors, so these background investments are helping keep activity going in WA.”

Combine harvester sales showed a rare bright spot, rising two per cent year-to-date, though they were still down 22 per cent over the full 12 months. Baler sales dropped 33 per cent year-to-date and 14 per cent over the past year.

Self-propelled sprayers, now tracked in Kynetec’s reporting, recorded a 42 per cent drop year-to-date and a 34 per cent decline over the last 12 months.

Kynetec’s Business Barometer dealer survey showed weakening satisfaction with turnover, particularly in Victoria and South Australia, which experienced drier conditions earlier this year. Most dealers across the country expect turnover to remain flat over the next six months, with South Australia anticipating further decline.

Meanwhile, Kynetec’s farmer Pulse Survey reflected cautious optimism. Farmers in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were the most upbeat about their economic outlook over the next two to three years.

Just five per cent of surveyed farmers plan to buy a tractor in the next six months, though most expect to make a purchase within one to five years.

Brand loyalty remains strong, with the majority of respondents saying they intend to stick with their current brand citing access to servicing, strong dealer relationships and machine reliability.