Winter harvest exceeds expectations

Australia’s winter crop production is turning out to be better than initially forecasted, with harvest expected to hit 55.2 million tonnes, according to ABARES' February 2021 Australian crop report.

That is a 7.4 per cent increase from ABARES’ December 2020 forecast of 51.6 million tonnes, and is a close second to 2016-17’s record breaking harvest of 56.7 million tonnes.

ABARES Executive Director, Dr Jared Greenville, said winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 89 per cent in 2020–21.

“The upward revision was the result of yields continuing to exceed expectations as harvest progressed, particularly in New South Wales and Western Australia,” he said.

Wheat, barley and canola production are the “stars of the show” with huge production increases compared to the previous year.

“Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 120 per cent in 2020–21 to 33.3 million tonnes, while barley production is estimated to have increased by 45 per cent to 13.1 million tonnes,” Dr Greenville said.

“Canola production is estimated to have increased by 74 per cent to 4.1 million tonnes.”

ABARES predicts the 2020–21 summer crop season to be better than last year but still below average.

Area planted to summer crops is estimated to be 1.04 million hectares—nearly three times larger than the heavily drought-affected 2019–20 season.

Greenville said good rain and mild autumn weather are expected to contribute to a good season ahead.

“Summer crop production is forecast to increase to 3.3 million tonnes in 2020–21,” Dr Greenville said.

“This is around 13 per cent below the 10-year average to 2019–20 because planted area remains below average due to limited planting in New South Wales on the back of large winter crop plantings and a poor start to the summer crop season in some areas of Queensland.”

Area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have increased by 258 per cent in 2020–21 to 511,000 hectares. Production is forecast to increase by 409 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is estimated to have risen by 395 per cent in 2020–21 to 295,000 hectares, driven by improved soil moisture and greater supply of irrigation water in most cotton-growing regions, ABARES said.

“Yields are forecast to be below average due to a higher than average share of dryland cotton in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Dryland cotton yields less than irrigated cotton.” Dr Greenville said.